The Economics and Politics of Tourism in Kenya

What is tourism?From a layman's point of view its activities that take place at recreational amenities and facilities.Tourism is a wide field and cover much more than recreational activities.Its therefore becomes very important to understand what tourism is,how its benefits a country and how we can improve tourism as a country?Kenya is yet to fully enjoy the fruits of tourism yet Kenya is one of the few countries in the world that has one of the biggest tourism industry. Tourism is widely recognized as a key contributor to the Kenya's economy.Kenya’s services sector, which contributes about 64 % of Gross Domestic Product, is largely dominated by tourism. The tourism sector as it is has exhibited steady growth in most years since independence and by the late 1980s had become the country’s principal source of foreign exchange. In the late 1990s, tourism relinquished this position to tea exports, because of a terrorism-related downturn and political instability. The downturn followed the 1998 bombing of the U.S Embassy in Nairobi and later negative travel advisories from Western governments. Tourists, the largest number from Germany and the United Kingdom, are attracted mainly to the coastal beaches and the game reserves, notably, the expansive Tsavo National Park (20,808 square kilometers) in the southeast. The government and tourist industry organizations have taken steps to address the security problem and to reverse negative publicity. Such steps include establishing a tourist police and launching marketing campaigns in key tourist origin markets. Tourism has seen a substantial revival over the past several years and is the major contributor to the pick-up in the country’s economic growth.Tourism is today Kenya's largest foreign exchange earning sector, followed by flowers, tea, and coffee. In 2006 tourism generated US$803 million, up from US$699 million the previous year. Tourism forms a vital foundation for the country's economy and is highlights two of Kenya's most unique features: wildlife and beaches. Careful planning and proactive leadership have maximized the tourism potential as Kenya continually outpaces it's East African neighbors. A solid infrastructure coupled with a devotion to wildlife conservation has propelled Kenya to the forefront of the regional tourism industry. 

However pertinent issues arise.Why does Kenya fail to get the maximum benefits from its robust tourism sector?One of the key thing is that tourism is largely run by multinational corporations.These multinational corporation are run like cartels where they lobby for friendly legislation.They also repatriate most of the profits to their mother country.Its crucial to note that most of this conglomerates are foreign owned. Its important for the government to put in place legal mechanism to curb this.A country like Libya has put in a law that requires that 70% of the profits be reploughed back in the country while 30% can be repatriated.  The cost of tourism is so exorbitant compared to Tanzania and South Africa.Many tourist are preferring to go to these destination other than Kenya.Is this the way to go?Although its being argued that this will work positively in the long run in terms of preserving our destinations and our enviroment

There are a myriad of leakages in the multiplier cycle in the tourism sector.Tourists sometimes carry along with them things like alcohol and water from their original country .This has a negative impact to the economic benefits of tourism.Such products should be highly taxed by the government to encourage use of local products.Another contributor to leakages is the fact that you will find that most senior management position in places like hotels are reserved for foreigners yet Kenya has talented persons who can execute such roles.The locals are left to do the less prestigious menial jobs in the tourism industry.This has a negative impacts on growth of Kenyan economy.For example the Maasai community is being dissuaded from adopting new methods of life in order to act as tourist attractions.What does this mean to the local economy?This people will not be educated and will continue to leave in deplorable conditions.

The government also need to intervene in order to reduce the number of licenses required before establishing a tour related service.Its time the government also supported the local investors by giving subsidies and financial support in order  to compete against the multinational corporations.The decentralization of government department that deals with investors is also key to improving the business environment. The issue of sustainable tourism also play an integral part in helping the country reap maximum benefits.The government should also focus its energy in promoting domestic tourism which could be more sustainable than international tourism.

The government also need to address the issue of sex tourism.Together with stakeholders this is a problem that need attention.This is because its erodes all the benefits the country accrue from the tourism industry.Sex tourism is highly related to  use of drugs and this is having an adverse effects on the productive youths.


Not unless the government address such issues,Kenya will not fully benefit from tourism industry which has great potential.But does our government listen?

 

Operation "odyssey dawn" by a coalition of air strikes in Libya is a tragedy of gigantic proportion

Two wrongs do not constitute a  right,a tooth for a tooth will make us toothless and an eye for an eye will make us blind. If Gaddafi was killing his own people to safeguard his dictatorial regime, does it mean there were no better mechanisms from the  so called global community to come up with a solution to the problem instead of directing bombs from the Libyans skies and why was the military intervention hurriedly executed?A US-led coalition of Britain and France have attacked Libya in a purported claim to protect the civilian against their embattled leader Muammar Gaddafi.The decision was hatched through the United Nations Security council that voted to impose a no-fly zone in Libya to bar Gaddafi forces against using air strikes against his people. In as much as we abhor and condemn Gaddafi action against his people,its wrong  for the coalition of these countries to attack Libya.This can be described as an act of aggression against Libya and its people.It would be very wrong if these countries learnt no lesson in their invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan.The act of these countries can only be described as mischievous, obnoxious,myopic and cheeky. Already some of the permanent members of the said UNSC have voiced their concern against these attacks.Indeed Moscow has claimed the US-led coalition was going beyond its UN mandate to protect civilians and called for an end to the indiscriminate use of force. What is even more worrying is the fact that cluster bombs and depleted uranium weapons are being used .Its not beyond anyone's ken that this is not peace but war.

Only an  indolent person will fail to see that these attacks will have much more ramifications than what they claimed to stop.It's important  to draw some lessons from the US led invasion to Iraq and Afghanistan.Their claim was that there were weapon of mass destruction and thus the need to attack but until today they have found non.The civilian continue to die and suffer in deplorable conditions because of these attacks.Its therefore pain my heart to see these countries attacking Libya.Please note that I do not support Gaddafi.In fact I have always said that it was time Gaddafi left the people of Libya  to decide their own destiny.His use of excessive power against his people is wrong and can only be described as insane. Its common knowledge that Gaddafi is one of the worst dictators of our  modern time but is he the only dictator on the on earth? Why Libya and not Zimbabwe, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Iran, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?

There is one clear echo, in particular, in the British government's approach to Gaddafi, 20 years ago. At the end of military action in the 1991 Gulf war, President George Bush encouraged the Shias of southern Iraq to rise up. Many did so and were crushed for their pains by Saddam's forces. David Cameron encouraged the rebels in Libya to continue their fight but without giving them any real means to help them on the ground. There is one way Britain and the US could be helping: intelligence officers and special forces could assist not only in identifying targets for bombers but in organizing sabotage operations. It will soon become impossible to continue the campaign from the air or from submarine-launched missiles, however "smart" or accurate the bombs are.At this time the US-led forces will have to craft another strategy and this where all hell will break lose.We will have another Iraq/Afghanistan scenario in Africa.2007/2008 saw Kenya go through the worst crisis after bungled elections which was a tragedy of gigantic  proportion to democracy and justice but the international community did not come up with military intervention under the aegis of propagating international democracy.

The stench of hypocrisy around this war is unbelievable,Indeed its now being argued that this attacks is all about oil, control and a message to the rest of the world and the region  is that we can do it if we want to. My hunch is that soon there will be  a ground war, the partition of Libya and the theft of that country's oil and resources.If anyone thought that Gaddafi forces killed many civilian then be assured that this air stakes will kill many more by far. This is  utterly reprehensible,the air strikes will cost the Libyans hundreds of thousands of lives and even more livelihoods.


This bombing will not succeed. This will be a long war, casualties will occur far from the scenes of battle and the radicalization of Arab and Islamic world will take advantage and entrench themselves. This is not peacekeeping. This is imperialist war-making. German has already warned people not to be "taken in" by claims that the goal of the air strikes is to "help the poor people of Libya". The people of Libya will not be helped but will be harmed by this intervention, just as the people of Afghanistan and Iraq have been. The only people who can change the situation in Libya are the people of Libya. People may be supporting the war because they think it's wrong to do nothing, then they're not asking the right question. On the surface, it seems hard to argue against that question. But that's always how it is with war: people feel we have to do something. The real question is about the motives of those who are taking action.In this case, the motives of those who are going into Libya with all their guns blazing, are clearly duplicitous. They're not really going to protect the poor people in Benghazi, they're going in to re-establish their power, position and strength in a strategically important place.


Only time will tell what these attacks will bring to the people of Libya.Most of us agree that what Gaddafi is doing to his people is wrong.But pertinent question arise:How do you negotiate with a person holding a gun (the rebels),and will the US-led attacks solve the problem in Libya or it will just be the same case like Iraq and Afghanistan? Its also curious to note the interest  and the enthusiasm the USA,France and Britain have in these attacks.Initially USA was reluctant to such an action but now they seem to have taken the lead,Its also apparent that Libya financed Sikorsky presidential campaigns and nobody care about that now.We are also rife to the fact that Libya has massive oil wells and it would be beneficial if USA and their miscreant gang of countries had control over them.Was this the only way to handle the one month old problem?Could we have given dialogue and compromise a chance?Its also peculiar that the revolt in Libya is more unique than all the others in Arab world. Welcome to the new world!

Strategic management of small firms and importance of strategic management skills

Strategic Management, can be looked as, the art and science of formulating, implementing and evaluating cross-functional decisions that enable an organization to achieve its objective.

Analysis:

The on-going process of formulating, implementing and controlling broad plans guide the organizational in achieving the strategic goods given its internal and external environment.

Interpretation: 

1. On-going process:

Strategic management is a on-going process which is in existence through out the life of organization. 

2. Shaping broad plans:

First, it is an on-going process in which broad plans are firstly formulated than implementing and finally controlled. 

3. Strategic goals:

Strategic goals are those which are set by top management. The broad plans are made in achieving the goals.

4. Internal and external environment:

Internal and external environment generally set the goals. Simply external environment forced internal environment to set the goals and guide them that how to achieve the goals?

Importance of strategic Management

Strategic management becomes important due to the following reasons:

Globalization: 

First, global considerations impact virtually all strategic decisions! The boundaries of countries no longer can define the limits of our imaginations. To see and appreciate the world from the perspective of others has become a matter of survival for businesses. The underpinnings of strategic management hinge upon managers' gaining an understanding of competitors, markets, prices, suppliers, distributors, governments, creditors, shareholders, and customers worldwide. The price and quality of a firm's products and services must be competitive on a worldwide basis, not just a local basis.

The distance between the business sectors are becoming less due to the provisions of certain facilities. Although political boundaries are there but in order to become successful in business it is essential to laid stress on globalization.

E-Commerce: A business tool

A second theme is that electric commerce (e-commerce) has become a vital strategic-management tool. An increasing number of companies are gaining competitive advantage by using the Internet for direct selling and for communication with suppliers, customers, creditors, partners, shareholders, clients, and competitors who may be dispersed globally. E-commerce allows firms to sell products, advertise, purchase supplies, bypass intermediaries, track inventory, eliminate paperwork, and share information. In total, electronic commerce is minimizing the expense and cumbersomeness of time, distance and space in doing business, which yields better customer service, greater efficiency, improved products and higher profitability.

The Internet and personal computers are changing the way we organize our lives; inhabit our homes; and relate to and interact with family, friends, neighbors, and even ourselves. The Internet promotes endless comparison shopping which enables consumers worldwide to band together to demand discounts. The Internet has transferred power from businesses to individuals so swiftly that in another decade there may be "regulations" imposed on groups of consumers. Politicians may one day debate the need for "regulation on consumers" rather than "regulation on big business" because of the Internet's empowerment of individuals. Buyers used to face big obstacles to getting the best price and service, such as limited time and data to compare, but now consumers can quickly scan hundreds of vendors’ offerings. Or they can go to Web sites such as Compare Net.com that offers detailed information on more than 100,000 consumer products.

The Internet has changed the very nature and core of buying and selling in nearly all industries.

It has fundamentally changed the economics of business in every single industry worldwide

Earth environment has become a major strategic issue

A third theme is that the natural environment has become an important strategic issue. With the demise of communism and the end of the Cold War, perhaps there is now no greater threat to business and society than the continuous exploitation and decimation of our natural environment. The resources are scarce but the wants are unlimited. In order to meet the wants of the world, the resources
should be efficiently utilized. For example, the use of oil resources or energy resources will make the people to use these resources for a long time.

Strategic management – A route to success:

The study of strategic management integrates different topics. Different courses are integrated due to the study of this course so that businesses become successful in every sector. It integrates the following:

Marketing
Management
Finance
Research and development

The management and marketing are essential part of a business sectors. They should be integrated. Just like other sections of the business are integrated under this study. This term is mostly used by academia but this is also used in media.
The fundamental question in the field of strategic management is how firms achieve and sustain competitive advantage. This can be confronted by developing the dynamic capabilities approach, which endeavors to analyze the sources of wealth creation and capture by firms. The development of this framework flows from a recognition by the authors that strategic theory is replete with analyzes of firm-level strategies for sustaining and safeguarding extant competitive advantage, but has performed less well  
 

Conclusion

 

Strategy-evaluation framework that can facilitate accomplishment of annual and long-term objectives. Effective strategy evaluation allows an organization to capitalize on internal strengths as they develop, to exploit external opportunities as they emerge, to recognize and defend against threats, and to mitigate internal weaknesses before they become detrimental.

Strategists in successful organizations take the time to formulate, implement, and then evaluate strategies deliberately and systematically. Good strategists move their organization forward with purpose and direction, continually evaluating and improving the firm's external and internal strategic position. Strategy evaluation allows an organization to shape its own future rather than allowing it to be constantly shaped by remote forces that have little or no vested interest in the well-being of the enterprise. 

Although not a guarantee for success, strategic management allows organizations to make effective long- term decisions, to execute those decisions efficiently, and to take corrective actions as needed to ensure success. Computer networks and the Internet help to coordinate strategic-management activities and to ensure that decisions are based on good information. A key to effective strategy evaluation and to successful strategic management is an integration of intuition and analysis.

A potentially fatal problem is the tendency for analytical and intuitive issues to polarize. This polarization leads to strategy evaluation that is dominated by either analysis or intuition, or to strategy evaluation that is discontinuous, with a lack of coordination among analytical and intuitive issues.

Strategists in successful organizations realize that strategic management is first and foremost a people process. It is an excellent vehicle for fostering organizational communication. People are what make the difference in organizations. 

The real key to effective strategic management is to accept the premise that the planning process is more important than the written plan, that the manager is continuously planning and does not stop planning when the written plan is finished. The written plan is only a snapshot as of the moment it is approved. If the manager is not planning on a continuous basis—planning, measuring, and revising—the written plan can become obsolete the day it is finished. This obsolescence becomes more of a certainty as the increasingly rapid rate of change makes the business environment more uncertain.

Sources:

Virtual University of Pakistan 

Fred R. David,Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases (12th Edition)

Thomas L. Wheelen,Strategic Management & Business Policy: Achieving Sustainability (12th Edition)

 

Facebook; the New Frontier to Security Threats

The phishing emails that attempt to get your credit card or bank sign-in data are just a storm in a cup of tea. When internet crooks want to know how to get into your bank account, they post a message on Facebook. These messages appear so innocuous,innocent and so appropriate in the Facebook setting that you are likely to not only get conned, but pass on the scam to others.Indeed Facebook has become the new minefield for fraudsters. In just this past few years social networks have soared to among the most dangerous in terms of security threat.The social network are rivaling with   porn and software-sharing sites, which you probably know to avoid.

How does it happen?

It starts with the fact that we are inundated with requests to set up passwords to get into our work computers, our online bank accounts, Facebook and every other web-based subscription. So what do we do? We use the same password. Internet crooks understand that most users use the same password for everything.If they can get your user credentials for your Facebook account, there's a good chance that they have the password for your bank account.If you are smart enough to have separate passwords for Facebook and your financial accounts, crooks get at you through a variety phishing attempts that you might think are Facebook games and widgets. But look closely and you'll realize that they deliver answers to all of your bank's security questions -- and possibly clues to your passwords, right into the hands of the crooks.Think it couldn't happen to you? Let's see if you recognize any of these recent Facebook messages that jeopardize your security. All of these came from my Facebook friends in just the past few weeks:

We're stuck!

It started out as an email scam, but now the "We're stuck in [Europe/Asia/Canada] and need money" scam has moved to instant messages on Facebook, where it can be more effective. Most people have learned not to react to the email, but instant messages help crooks by forcing you to react emotionally...They're right there. They need help, now.Facebook has launched a security system to combat account hijacking that allows crooks to send messages and posts through your account. You can get updates on what they're doing at Facebook's security page, where they've also got a nice little security quiz that's definitely worth taking.

LOL. Look at the video I found of you!

This is the most dangerous of all the spam messages and it comes in a variety of forms. It's actually a bid to surreptitiously install malware on your computer. This malware can track your computer keystrokes and record your sign-in and password information with all of your online accounts.How does it work? When you click on the link, it says that you need to upgrade your video player to see the clip. If you hit the "upgrade" button, it opens your computer to the crooks, who ship in their software. You may be completely unaware of it until you start seeing strange charges hit your credit cards or bank account. Up-to-date security software should stop the download. If you don't have that, watch out.Better yet, if you really think some friend is sending you a video clip, double-check with the friend to be sure before you click on the link. When  you see this just know that your  Facebook account had been hijacked and anyone who clicks through is likely to have their account hijacked too. That's how this virus spreads virally.

Who knows you best?

The message reads:

Can you do this? My middle name __________, my age ___, my favorite soda _______, my birthday ___/___/___, whose the love of my life ______, my best friend _____, my favorite color ______, my eye color _______, my hair color ______ my favorite food ________ and my mom's name __________. Put this as your status and see who knows you best.

How many of these are the same facts your bank asks to verify your identity? Put this as your status and everybody -- including all the people who want to hijack your bank account and credit cards -- will know you well enough to make a viable attempt.

Your friend [Name here] just answered a question about you!

Was it possible that an old friend answered a question about me that I needed to "unlock?" Absolutely. But when you click on the link, the next screen should give you pause: 21 Questions is requesting permission to ... (a) access your name, profile picture, gender, networks, user ID, friends and any other information shared with everyone ... (b) send you email ... (c) post to your wall ... and ... (d) access your data any time ... regardless of whether or not you're using their application.

Can you take that access back -- ever? It sure doesn't look like it. There's no reference to how you can stop them from future access to your data in their "terms and conditions." Worse, it appears that to "unlock" the answer in your friend's post, you need to answer a bunch of questions about your other friends and violate their privacy too. I didn't give 21 Questions access to my information, but the roughly 850 people who joined "People Who Hate 21 Questions on Facebook" apparently have and can give you insight into just how pernicious this program can be.

So just be careful when you use Facebook and other social networks.They may seem harmless but they pose a great danger.That why you find very embarrassing messages sent to your friends purportedly by you.

Source:

Some of the work have been adapted from Kathy Kristof

Kenya media has knocked itself off the Pedestal

Its apparent that our learned men and women of the fourth estate have lost the moral decency.Its no wonder then that their news and editorial material are extremely short on truth, logic and rationality and tall on  drama, sensationalism and nudity. Without any fear of contradiction most media content nowadays can best be described as cheeky, mischievous and obnoxious

The influence of the media on  national opinion and by a large extension security, order and morality is something that cannot be ignored. Indeed, in every country that practice democracy, the media is the moral conscience of the nation and a critical tool for socio-economic development. The media therefore represent the hopes and aspirations of the people.

Sound and proper democracies all over the world  have professional media institutions such as editors' guilds and media councils to enforce standards and self control of the industry to ensure that consumers of media products are guarded against indecent products.The driving factor behind this is that the media represent one of the most potent commands and platforms for human interaction and development anywhere in the world. Their potential to do good is matched by the potential for evil as well.Without any fear of contradiction one of the greatest occupational hazards of the media is the prospect of a journalist becoming an isolationist, and developing the redundant and repugnant characteristics of occupants of ivory towers, becoming a sadist, an extortionist, a blackmailer or a pervert.

Among Kenyan media practitioners however, there exists an even worse clique of journalists than the ivory of tower or extortionist,the journalist or media house who sacrifice moral decency at the altar of instant gratification and profiteering, and yet continue to masquerade as independent and objective purveyors of information. What's worse, is the fact that a variety of media practitioners who are nothing short of social misfits or outright deviants of social norms, occupy senior positions in newsrooms where they intentionally publish pornography.  If  this is the media  to set the agenda for society, then our children would be in grave danger indeed.

A story in The Star daily in the  last week, regarding the sexual escapades at Muliro Gardens in Kakamega is a clear testimony to the miscreant crop of editors that run the show in some media houses. How  can  explicit photos of people having sex in a public garden end up on the pages of a purported national paper?What value if any did the publishing of the offending photo add to the story, save to an editor with a vicarious mind? Indeed an editor who publishes such photos obviously possesses a mind no better than that of the culprits themselves.

This country has been treated to some of the most egregious and gross effects of lopsided editorial cast of mind and malpractice in the past in both the print and electronic media. Morally offending editorial content has been diffused through the radio, television and online media, in the most reckless manner one can imagine.Its with this in mind that I argue that  the media sector taken a culture that can be defined as  ignorance,ostentation,vainglory and arrogance. In fact, media have  created a cult of treating their customers with disdain and making no apologies about it.

Today, the media  have become part of our youth culture, fusing music, fashion, and drugs use with computer graphics in vehicles that are virtually nightclubs on wheels. Private radio broadcasters are joining the matatu industry at the hip as the most abusive, pollutant  and irritating service sub-sectors in Kenya. And surely, media rank very high in the world in these dubious distinctions.But a new dimension in the media is the culture of dedicating acres of space focusing on mythic characters. Our media outlets do not consider utilizing the same energy, space and resources to cover more important issues like economic development, agribusiness,culture, sports, environment or even technology.The mass media is today replete with a sensationalism craze and the celebrity sub-culture which is becoming deeply entrenched and permeates everyday life, to a point where it seems unfashionable to run a newspaper without a picture of a half-naked woman somewhere on the pages.

Indeed without any prevarication I  conclude that our editors have a poor sense of judgment when it comes to moral values, taste and tone, put differently who told our editors that perversion, pornography and celebrity-cult is what the people want to read and hear? Does it mean that Kenyans have become so petty as to prefer sordid pornographic and weird celebrity content as opposed to developmental material? The ever increasing number of magazines and newspapers compete to get the most graphic illustration of celebrities and their misdeeds. Some have made it their noble calling to incorporate nudity as a culture on the center pages of their newspaper magazines, without batting an eyelid.

And as the media continues showing this blatant irresponsibility by propagating the culture of pimped cars, fancy lifestyles, jewelery, sagged trousers and nudity - what lessons can we learn from the current state of media in this country? Is it safe anymore for a parent to let their kids read a newspaper, watch the television or listen to the radio alone? indeed this is a naked pursuit of  large readership without any patriotic moral commitment to the dignity and newsworthy news item.I have constantly noted that part of a media fraternity are in urgent need of adulthood education and they lack a nose for news.They seem obnoxious of what constitute a newsworthy item.

By echoing Thomas Jefferson the media fraternity should know that :a nation as a society forms a moral person, and every member of it is personally responsible for his society. Let's play our part in making our shared space a better place for all of us.  It starts with all of us...!

An Economic Juggernaut ,Earthquake, Tsunami Impacts on Japan’s Economy

As I deeply contemplate with shock  the extent of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on Friday last week, my heart goes out to victims and survivors of the tragedy and to their families. This disaster will go down in history books as one of the largest natural disasters in Japan's history. And as I extend my prayers and sympathy to the people of Japan its crucial  to note that there are two big forces at work, external and internal. We have very little control over external forces such as tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, disasters, illness and pain. What really matters is the internal force. How do we respond to these disasters?I  indeed share with them the grieve and empathize with them and may our good Lord grant them the courage and grace to rise and carry on.

Japan’s Economy

Japan’s economic markets are reeling from the devastating earthquake and tsunami that smacked north-eastern Japan on Friday, but the tragedy, which has led to death of  tens of thousands and swept whole villages out to sea, has so far had very limited impact on markets in the rest of the world.Although economic analyst are guarded in their words the reality is dawning to the world on the real impact.

Investors are holding the line  now, in order to better understand the true economic impact of the disaster. As one analyst put it “we can’t help feeling that the markets are being too sanguine about the implications of what is happening in Japan,” says Julian Jessop, an economist with Capital Economics based in London.

Japan stocks plummeted on Monday, falling 6%, this is the by biggest margin since December 2008, while the yen hit a four-month high at US¥80.60. In an apparent response to shaken markets, the Bank of Japan announced it was injecting a record ¥15-trillion or US$183-billion into the economy with a promise of more liquidity to come if needed.North American and European stocks also fell, however, losses were much more muted. Limited losses on equity markets outside Japan likely reflects the Bank of Japan’s monetary actions and a belief that the economy can rebound from the disaster fairly quickly.

The tsunami/earthquake will be a hit to Japan’s economic growth, but the liquidity being added to the economy by the country’s central bank will help ensure a swift recovery later this year.

It cannot be ignored that there is going to be a huge human cost and there is still plenty of uncertainty, but this is just a temporary setback for the economy.Compared to the Kobe earthquake in 1995 that cost US$100-billion.The European Union leaders have agreed to nearly double the size of the bailout fund used to help indebted members have also helped temper losses, as have falling oil prices.Crude is down as much as 4% since March 7, as the unrest in North Africa – with the exception of Libya – looks to be settling after last week’s.There is widespread belief that natural disasters can eventually be turned into a positive economic catalyst for the country as demand for reconstruction increases.

At the same time, many investors think Japan’s reliance on export-led growth has relegated it to 'passenger of the global recovery rather than a main driver.'Markets may be too optimistic about Japan’s impact on the global economy and warns there could be plenty of downside yet to come.For a start, private domestic demand was already fragile before the disaster struck and the public finances in a dire state.The chances of a rapid economic recovery are slim but the chances of a major fiscal crisis have increased. Given Japan’s importance as a global investor this could have major repercussions around the world.

 Its can also be observed that crude demand weakened after Japan’s worst earthquake on record forced refineries to close. The yen gained as investors bought the domestic currency as a haven.Oil slumped 1.5 percent to $101.16 a barrel at 4 p.m. In New York and earlier fell 3.6 percent for its biggest drop since November. The MSCI World Index erased a loss of as much as 0.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.7 percent to 1,304.28 as higher-than-estimated profit forecasts from Steel Dynamics Inc. and Pall Corp. lifted commodity and industrial shares. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 1.7 percent. The yen rose 1.3 percent versus the dollar, the most since August.

If you think Japan’s quake tsunami combo looked bad,then there may be worse to come. We might just get financial devastation on top of a human and physical disaster.If history is anything to go by it could be monumental. Just look what happened when Mother Nature made an unexpected call in 1987. On October 15 and 16 a hurricane hit southern England.As the cost estimates of the disaster grew insurance companies started to dump their holdings of stocks and bonds so they had cash to pay the mounting claims. By Monday October 19 there was enough to selling to cause the stocks to slide by over 22% in New York. It was Black Monday. It was worse in London than New York.So what can we expect this time? Well, we are already seeing the first-order effects. Insurance company stocks are selling off.  That’s likely a gut reaction.

The broad second-order impact will be felt when insurance companies start selling assets to pay claims. Exactly where we’ll see that will depend on which insurance companies are most exposed to this disaster and then what assets are those particular companies holding.

By identifying that, we’ll know where the heaviest selling pressure will be. Likely it will be in long-dated corporate bonds plus dividend paying stocks. That could cause some dislocation in the bond market as well as stocks.The other effects will be that of large volumes of money moving across the globe. We’re already seeing the Japanese yen rally against the dollar as insurance companies repatriate funds ahead of claims rolling in.

The earthquake has forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a critical source of parts for consumer electronics, as well as a key producer of automobiles, auto parts, steel and other goods.

In a nutshell the Japan economic impact of the Tsunami cannot be over-emphasized.It will not just be felt within Japan but globally due to Japanese economic global standing.

Could the Kenya ICC Defferal Request Be the Trigger for Africa Mass Walkout from ICC?

It's now apparent that the AU is in the process of developing a document which, if approved, will enable the formation of a parallel African court on criminal justice.The Kenyan situation is a trap for the ICC. African countries will be saying we are withdrawing from the ICC, not because we support impunity, but because we want to form our own institution. It is important to note that the Veto-wielding states in the UN Security Council would be condemning the ICC should they block Kenya's bid.

Indeed Kenya is trying to save the International Criminal Court from collapse. Come July this year, if the Kenyan deferral is not given, the 32 countries of the AU in the ICC will withdraw their membership.The (AU) leaders are diffusing the following point; that  we sent the Sudan deferral case to the Security Council and America played, so now let us send the second deferral from Kenya and see what it will do.  

The UN decision making organ invited Kenya and an AU representative to an informal meeting where members would hear the country’s argument for a 12-month postponement of the on-going ICC proceedings. Britain and America who are part of the five permanent members have expressed their reservation to the deferral bid, but it would be wise for them to  abstain from a possible vote.Abstention would be the most logical route for the two countries to take.Kenya’s support from the African Union was weighing heavily in its favour and should not be taken for granted by anybody.The best America can do is to abstain, because it has no moral authority to discuss human rights when it is not even a signatory to the Rome Statute.

The Security Council can issue a one-year suspension if there is a threat to international peace and security. The ICC pre-trial chamber last Tuesday ordered the six Kenyans to appear before the court on April 7 on charges that they masterminded the post-election violence. The hurry in which the summons were issues is also suspect,because even up to today the ruling of the dissenting Judge is yet to be issued.However  It will be interesting to see how this affair unfolds.

Living by the 'Creed of Greed' and the 'Me First' Attitude

Two things appear to have slowly entrenched  themselves in our society.The creed of greed and the attitude that "I come first."The biggest questions therefore are:Do we work just to make money? and why are Kenyans enmeshed in this attitude of 'me first'?Many scholars and people alike are asking  is the growing so called 'hustler mentality' the way to go?

Kenyans today are living by the creed of greed.This is attributed  to the fact that every new born Kenyan immediately inherits a debt of no less than Sh30,000. It is a debt that was incurred by others on our behalf.You will also observe that Kenyans are filled with the attitude of 'me first'.A good example is where motorist and pedestrian compete on who to use the road.Each is competing to use the road first and non is willing to allow the other to use the road first.This attitude is well spread in out society where politician and those in leadership position are more interested in themselves and their needs.

Going back into Kenya's history,the colonizers bequeathed to the first indigenous government, the railway, we inherited many farms and many institutions but 48 years down the line we can no longer run a railway system; forests that were left have been converted into plots. Its  a country where many a politician, many a respected individual now stand on rooftops and pontificate about what Kenyans should do.

From the bible  its clear that God makes something out of nothing. Kenyans have lost sight of the intrinsic value of work. Kenya's colonial legacy had both positive and negative aspects and we could have built on the positives and discarded what was not good for us.  The rain started beating us when we adopted a mis-education policy.The colonizers came up with an education system that was supposed to create people to work in their company, a system to create serfs. And that's why you find a person coming from a village where there may be several nuclear physicists PhDs and there's no running water, there's no electricity and people are dying of hunger every year.Apart the education system, Kenya's working populace is a product of societal norm and values which have been inculcated at the most basic unit of the society; the family.If you look at other societies, you'll find that people come up with inventions and ways to make life easier for themselves, but this doesn't seem to be the way we as Kenyans have been cultured to think.

Our parents were the first ones to encounter this colonial education system and they bought it hook line and sinker and they passed it to us unquestioningly. This has created a whole generation of people who have no interest in solutions, they primary motive for work is to just get rich.The tragedy then is the middle class, that slice of the population that should be creating solutions for Africa, who are  caught up in making wealth for themselves to insulate themselves from the poor.

The third factor  is  scarcity mentality. We have this myth that somewhere there's this national cake and I have to get into position so that I can get some for myself and for my relative. It's a very insidious thinking that has gotten into us.So what have we done to our forest cover? From 30 percent to meager 1.7 percent; because we are all eating it. Nobody is asking who's going to plant trees for the next generation.

Like the proverbial Phoenix Kenya can rise from the ashes on the wings of the youth. who should inculcate the idea  that in the absence of role models we will chart our own course guided by our  self-conscience. We must also do away with the attitude of 'me first' and cultivate the culture of empathy. We must be ready to allow and accept that we live this world with others.

Kenya Should First Seek Peace, then Justice

The ICC issue in Kenya continue generate a lot of debate.Its at best a labyrinth of political intrigues and  at worst a political witch hunt.Mr.Ocampo hypothesis or narrative lacks objectivity and amount to a fairy story.Reading the lopsided editorial pieces in our dailies one is left wondering if our  learned men and women of the fourth estate forgot what objectivity in news reportage means.Nobody should construe that those who of us who want peace before justice do not empathize with the victims of the post election violence.On the contrary it has always been my believe and advocacy that the victims of post election violence should be resettled and compensated by the government.

Examining closely,the issue of the ICC has divided our country more.Let nobody be misguided to believe that most Kenyans want the litigants or rather the suspects be tried at the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands. The issue here is that those for the ICC process are more organized than those against the process.Looking at how Mr.Ocampo is handling the whole process,any sober mind will tell when one is pursuing justice and when one is playing politics.Some of the reason that points to the fact that the ICC prosecutor goofed and he  is not about justice is the fact that he came with a list of 3 suspects from either political divide. This leaves many questions unanswered and he should know that justice is not about political affiliations.The list should have been exhaustive and should have not looked at political inclinations even if all the suspects were from one political party. Ocampo also decided to play politics by naming the suspects, this is prejudicial and any competent lawyer will tell you that it is not his business to reveal names before the judges decide if the litigants have a case to answer.Already Mr.Ocampo has been heavily criticized  and censured by the judges because of this and this  amount to an indictment of Mr.Ocampo and his investigation as a whole.

The argument that there can be no peace without justice is an academic theory that  holds no water.What is Justice?Justice is a function of economic empowerment.Look keenly at the Kenya justice system and anywhere in the world for that matter.To drive this point home,there is peace in Saudi Arabia but there is no justice.Ireland in north Europe decided that they needed peace more than justice.They therefore gave reconciliation a chance and the warring factions were allowed to share their grievances and forgive each other.They cried together and the country now enjoy relative peace. South Africa on the other hand chose peace first.They forgave each other, the perpetrators of apartheid and victims shared the same platform and empathized with each other and are at peace since then.

Kenya should therefore focus more of attaining peace before justice.The fact that the ICC process offer no hope for justice support this idea.Justice can only be achieved when all are at peace and living in harmony.You cannot achieve peace when some feel they are being targeted and the intent of the sought justice is at best shrouded with political shenanigans.Again the prosecutor knocked himself of the pedestal in his conduct.Further he seem not to have a good history to conduct any impartial investigation.His love for the media attention and his public utterances leave everyone dismayed. His work is cosmetic and  he did not do his work well.If he indeed succeed in indicting the suspects either all of them or some he will be simply planting seeds of discord in Kenya and peace will remain a mirage.However the likely chance of him succeeding are slim if the judges remain objective and faithful to their oath of office. Kenya should therefore seek peace first and then  justice through a credible justice system.