War on terrorism is just beginning

As we welcome the capture and  death of Osama bin Laden,I have a feeling that there is nothing to celebrate.Many of us have  had to watch and listen to the harrowing stories people have had to tell.All this in attempt to capture Osama.The collateral damage that resulted in his death is very disturbing and as as we welcome the capture and death of Osama we must not forget the people who have died and suffered in the process.We must pray for their souls to rest in peace. One thing is clear though, the issue of Osama is shrouded by ideological disagreements and arguments and its not yet clear why Pakistan authorities never realized that Osama was living  in that country.Its also raised a lot of questions than answers, why it took USA too long to capture him and if indeed there was any good will? If the argument from some quarters in anything to go by then we are not seeing the last of it.It has been argued that terrorism is more beneficial to USA than any other country in the world or lack of it.This is through sale of weaponry and ammunitions. USA alone account for 42% of total sales in the world.Indeed when all sectors in USA performed dismally in last few years this sector recorded phenomenal results.


But what does the death of Osama the leader of terrorist group Al-Qaeda mean to the fight against terrorism? My hunch is not much and my crystal ball tells me the battle has just begun.Please allow me to explain. Scholars of collective behaviour and social movements argue that terrorism is a form of social movement.Social movement is largely seen as a type of mass or group action. They are large informal groupings of individuals and or organizations focused on specific political or social issues, in other words, on carrying out, resisting or undoing a social change. It means the murder of Osama will result in reorganization of this terrorist groups and they will plan retaliation attacks against USA and her supporters. 

The sympathisers of Osama are going to regroup and act as may be explained by these social movements theories:

1. Contagion Theory - It was advanced  by Gustave Le Bon. According to him, crowds exert a hypnotic influence over their members. Shielded by their anonymity, large numbers of people abandon personal responsibility and surrender to the contagious emotions of the crowd. A crowd thus assumes a life of its own, stirring up emotions, and driving people toward irrational, even violent action. 
2. Convergence Theory - whereas the Contagion Theory states that crowds cause people to act in a certain way, Convergence theory states that people who want to act in a certain way come together to form crowds. It asserts that people with similar attributes find other like-minded persons with whom they can release underlying tendencies. People sometimes do things in a crowd that they would not have the courage to do alone because crowds can diffuse responsibility. Crowds, in addition, can intensify a sentiment simply by creating a critical mass of like-minded people.
3. Emergent-Norm Theory - according to Ralph Turner and Lewis Killian, crowds begin as collectivities composed of people with mixed interests and motives. Especially in the case of less stable crowds—expressive, acting and protest crowds—norms may be vague and changing, as when one person decides to break the glass windows of a store and others join in and begin looting merchandise. In short, people in crowds make their own rules as they go along.

The killing of Osama will not make terrorists fear but they will regroup and use different tactics as to avoid being captured. The fundamentalist will not be cowed by the killing but will use this as a strength and with the ideologies inculcated in them,this are hard-liners who do not fear being killed or if their leader is killed for that matter.To them Osama  is a martyr.

How then can war on terrorism be won?Although unlikely to be won easily,we can reduce the seriousness of it.The first step is by stabilizing countries like Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq where terrorism has thrived.No war can be won unless these countries are stable and have functional government.We also need to change the thinking of these terrorist groups and dismantle their ideology. Although not easy we have to make an effort if we wish to live in a relatively peaceful world